Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3–0 Widzew Łódź: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Widzew Łódź

João Oliveira 57'

Q. Seedorf 25', 22'

4/3/2021

I Liga · Round 23Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec38%

×Draw28%

Widzew Łódź34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchWidzew Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.12

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.19

Widzew Łódź

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

1.16

creates per match

0.85

1.39

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Widzew Łódź

0.85

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Widzew Łódź

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Widzew Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

66%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Widzew Łódź

72%

Draw or Widzew Łódź

62%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

16%

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

70%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

33%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

12%

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

67%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

31%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

52%

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Widzew Łódź attack 0.85 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

38%

level

28%

Widzew Łódź scores more

34%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Q. Seedorf

25'

Q. Seedorf

38'

D. Kun← P.Tomczyk

57'

João Oliveira

60'

M. Możdżeń← B. Poczobut

60'

P. Samiec-Talar← M. Ameyaw

61'

M. Hanousek← P. Mucha

72'

N. Korzeniecki← F. Karbowy

81'

M. Fundambu← M. Michalski

83'

D. Ryndak← Q. Seedorf

89'

K. Radkowski← P. Mišák

90'

M. Popczyk← Gonçalo Gregório

Zaglebie

Widzew

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: K. Moskal

72'▲N. Korzeniecki←▼F. Karbowy

83'▲D. Ryndak←▼Q. Seedorf

89'▲K. Radkowski←▼P. Mišák

90'▲M. Popczyk←▼Gonçalo Gregório

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

KorzenieckiRyndakRadkowskiPopczyk

Manager: E. Dobi

38'▲D. Kun←▼P.Tomczyk

60'▲M. Możdżeń←▼B. Poczobut

60'▲P. Samiec-Talar←▼M. Ameyaw

61'▲M. Hanousek←▼P. Mucha

81'▲M. Fundambu←▼M. Michalski

Widzew Łódź substitutes

KunMożdżeńSamiec-TalarHanousekFundambu