Widzew Łódź 3–2 Zaglebie Sosnowiec: Result & Stats

Widzew Łódź

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

P. Stępiński 79'

Dani Villanueva 42'

B. Guzdek 32'

S. Sobczak 52' (pen), 2'

11/28/2021

I Liga · Round 19Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Widzew Łódź51%

×Draw26%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widzew ŁódźExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.95

Widzew Łódź

1.54

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.95

Widzew Łódź creates 62% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 85 away

1.59

creates per match

0.94

0.97

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Widzew Łódź

1.59

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.94

allows per match

Widzew Łódź

0.97

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw

77%

Widzew Łódź or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

74%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

49%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

26%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

79%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

45%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

20%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

61%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

69%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.59 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Widzew Łódź defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more

51%

level

26%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

23%

Widzew Łódź at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

32'

39'

40'

42'

52'

S. SobczakPenalty

61'

M. Michalski← Fábio Nunes

61'

P.Tomczyk← Dani Villanueva

61'

R. Gołębiowski← B. Guzdek

63'

K. Smoleń← D. Ryndak

71'

D. Tanzyna

76'

M. Ambrosiewicz

77'

Q. Seedorf← M. Banaszewski

79'

P. Stępiński

83'

M. Hanousek

85'

P. Kita← K. Danielak

85'

Alex Tanque← W. Kamiński

Widzew

Zaglebie

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Villanuev

⚽

▼

Guzdek

Manager: J. Niedźwiedź

61'▲M. Michalski←▼Fábio Nunes

61'▲P.Tomczyk←▼Dani Villanueva

61'▲R. Gołębiowski←▼B. Guzdek

85'▲P. Kita←▼K. Danielak

Widzew Łódź substitutes

MichalskiP.TomczykGołębiowskiKitaLetniowskiKarasekNowakReszkaMucha

Manager: A. Skowronek

63'▲K. Smoleń←▼D. Ryndak

77'▲Q. Seedorf←▼M. Banaszewski

85'▲Alex Tanque←▼W. Kamiński

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

SmoleńSeedorfTanqueTroćPawłowskiGalićPerdijićStaniakChecinski