Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–2 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Warta Poznań

3/22/2026

II Liga - East · Round 24ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec27%

×Draw24%

Warta Poznań49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.73

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.22

Warta Poznań

1.73

Warta Poznań creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.38

creates per match

1.65

1.82

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.38

Warta Poznań

1.65

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.82

Warta Poznań

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

51%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Warta Poznań

76%

Draw or Warta Poznań

73%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

11%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

70%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

34%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

12%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

82%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

52%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

35%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Warta Poznań defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Warta Poznań attack 1.65 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

27%

level

24%

Warta Poznań scores more

49%

Warta Poznań at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff