Warta Poznań 1–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec: Result & Stats

Warta Poznań

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

9/7/2025

II Liga - East · Round 7Stadion przy Drodze Dębińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Warta Poznań50%

×Draw25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.09

Warta Poznań

1.63

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.09

Warta Poznań creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

1.71

creates per match

1.06

1.12

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.71

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.06

allows per match

Warta Poznań

1.12

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

75%

Warta Poznań or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

75%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

50%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

26%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

80%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

48%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

22%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

66%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

30%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

66%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.71 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.63

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Warta Poznań defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

50%

level

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

25%

Warta Poznań at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff