Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Tychy 71

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

CANC

10:00

Tychy 71

2/10/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec33%

×Draw23%

Tychy 7144%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchTychy 71

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.83

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.56

Tychy 71

1.83

Tychy 71 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.69

creates per match

1.57

2.08

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.69

Tychy 71

1.57

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.08

Tychy 71

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Tychy 71 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

56%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Tychy 71

77%

Draw or Tychy 71

67%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

16%

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

79%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

46%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

21%

Tychy 71 1+ goals

84%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

54%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

43%

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.69 + Tychy 71 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tychy 71 attack 1.57 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

33%

level

23%

Tychy 71 scores more

44%

Tychy 71 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff