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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Tychy 71
Tychy 71
8/29/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 6Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec37%
×Draw26%
Tychy 7136%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.32
Tychy 71
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 135 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Tychy 71
1.22

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Tychy 71
1.48

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Tychy 71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
64%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Tychy 71
74%
Draw or Tychy 71
63%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
17%
Tychy 71 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
73%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
38%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
15%
Tychy 71 1+ goals
73%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
37%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
51%
Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.48 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Tychy 71 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
37%
level
26%
Tychy 71 scores more
36%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Tychy 71

Tychy 71 beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-1 in I Liga on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.