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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Świt Skolwin — II Liga - East 2019

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
5/3/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 29ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec37%
×Draw23%
Świt Skolwin39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.60
Świt Skolwin
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.38
Świt Skolwin
1.46

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.82
Świt Skolwin
1.83

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Świt Skolwin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Świt Skolwin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
61%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Świt Skolwin
77%
Draw or Świt Skolwin
63%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
18%
Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
80%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
47%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
22%
Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
81%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
49%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
49%
Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Świt Skolwin away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Świt Skolwin attack 1.46 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
37%
level
23%
Świt Skolwin scores more
39%

Świt Skolwin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–3 Świt Skolwin

Świt Skolwin beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-1 in II Liga - East on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.