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Świt Skolwin vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — II Liga - East 2019

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
10/5/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 12Stadion Miejski Skolwin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Świt Skolwin46%
×Draw24%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
1.67
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.29

Świt Skolwin creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
1.79
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.06

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
1.53
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.55

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
70%
Świt Skolwin or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
76%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
54%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
24%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
81%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
50%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
23%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
72%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
37%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
61%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 1.79 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.67

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
46%
level
24%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
30%

Świt Skolwin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Świt Skolwin vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Świt Skolwin beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1-0 in II Liga - East on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Skolwin in Szczecin.