Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0–0 Stal Stalowa Wola

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stal Stalowa Wola

4/30/2026

II Liga - East · Round 30ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec36%

×Draw25%

Stal Stalowa Wola40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.52

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.43

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

1.38

creates per match

1.21

1.82

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.38

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.21

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.82

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

60%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Stal Stalowa Wola

75%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

64%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

17%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

76%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

42%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

17%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

78%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

45%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

47%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.21 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

36%

level

25%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

40%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff