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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
10/19/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 13Stadion Stali Stalowa Wola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola49%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.59
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.07

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 49% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.63
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.06

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.08
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.55

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
74%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
51%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
26%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
80%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
47%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
21%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
66%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
29%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
66%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
49%
level
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
26%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 2–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-0 in II Liga - East on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Stali Stalowa Wola in Stalowa Wola.