Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–2 Sokół Kleczew

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sokół Kleczew

11/21/2025

II Liga - East · Round 18ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec41%

×Draw24%

Sokół Kleczew35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchSokół Kleczew

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.52

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.66

Sokół Kleczew

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

1.38

creates per match

1.22

1.82

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.38

Sokół Kleczew

1.22

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.82

Sokół Kleczew

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Sokół Kleczew →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

65%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Sokół Kleczew

76%

Draw or Sokół Kleczew

59%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

21%

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

81%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

49%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

23%

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals

78%

Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals

45%

Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

54%

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Sokół Kleczew away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.22 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

41%

level

24%

Sokół Kleczew scores more

35%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff