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Sokół Kleczew vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
7/27/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Kleczew41%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Kleczew
1.51
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.35

Sokół Kleczew creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.47
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.06

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.65
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.55

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw
66%
Sokół Kleczew or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
59%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
20%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
78%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
44%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
19%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
74%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
39%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
55%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.47 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.51

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more
41%
level
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
34%

Sokół Kleczew at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Sokół Kleczew 1–2 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Sokół Kleczew 2-1 in II Liga - East on July 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kleczew.