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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs SKRA Częstochowa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
4/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec48%
×Draw22%
SKRA Częstochowa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.97
SKRA Częstochowa
1.54

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.69
SKRA Częstochowa
1.00

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.08
SKRA Częstochowa
2.25

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
70%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or SKRA Częstochowa
78%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
52%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
27%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
86%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
58%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
31%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
79%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
45%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
61%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.69 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.97

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.00 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
48%
level
22%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
30%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–2 SKRA Częstochowa

SKRA Częstochowa beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on April 17, 2026.