Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0–1 SKRA Częstochowa

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SKRA Częstochowa

3/12/2023

I Liga · Round 23Zagłębiowski Park Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec41%

×Draw29%

SKRA Częstochowa31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchSKRA Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.02

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.23

SKRA Częstochowa

1.02

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 21% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

1.16

creates per match

0.65

1.39

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

SKRA Częstochowa

0.65

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

SKRA Częstochowa

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

69%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or SKRA Częstochowa

71%

Draw or SKRA Częstochowa

59%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

18%

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

71%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

35%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

13%

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

64%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

27%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

57%

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

SKRA Częstochowa attack 0.65 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

41%

level

29%

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

31%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff