Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Ruch Chorzów — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
4/15/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 27Zagłębiowski Park Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec34%
×Draw26%
Ruch Chorzów40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.23
Ruch Chorzów
1.35

Ruch Chorzów creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Ruch Chorzów
1.31

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Ruch Chorzów
1.29

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Ruch Chorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
60%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Ruch Chorzów
74%
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
66%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
14%
Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
71%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
35%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
13%
Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
74%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
39%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
46%
Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.31 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
34%
level
26%
Ruch Chorzów scores more
40%

Ruch Chorzów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–0 Ruch Chorzów

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Ruch Chorzów 2-0 in I Liga on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Zagłębiowski Park Sportowy in Sosnowiec.