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Ruch Chorzów vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
9/9/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 10Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ruch Chorzów50%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
1.57
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.04

Ruch Chorzów creates 51% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.67
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.93

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.16
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.47

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
75%
Ruch Chorzów or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
50%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
26%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
79%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
46%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
21%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
65%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
66%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.67 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.93 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
50%
level
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
25%

Ruch Chorzów at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Ruch Chorzów 2–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Ruch Chorzów beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-0 in I Liga on September 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chorzów.