Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0–4 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

3/29/2026

II Liga - East · Round 25ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec34%

×Draw23%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchRekord Bielsko-Biała

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.72

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.52

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.72

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

1.38

creates per match

1.61

1.82

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.38

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.61

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.82

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

57%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

77%

Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

66%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

16%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

78%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

45%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

20%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

82%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

51%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

45%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.61 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

34%

level

23%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

43%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff