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Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — II Liga - East 2019

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
7/27/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała40%
×Draw27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.35
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.22

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.15
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.06

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.38
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.55

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw
66%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
73%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
60%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
18%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
74%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
39%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
15%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
70%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
34%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
54%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.15 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
40%
level
27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
34%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2-1 in II Liga - East on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Bielsko-Biała.