Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0–2 Polonia Warszawa

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Polonia Warszawa

10/8/2023

I Liga · Round 11ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec33%

×Draw26%

Polonia Warszawa41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchPolonia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.42

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.23

Polonia Warszawa

1.42

Polonia Warszawa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 53 away

1.16

creates per match

1.45

1.39

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Polonia Warszawa

1.45

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Polonia Warszawa

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Polonia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

59%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Polonia Warszawa

74%

Draw or Polonia Warszawa

67%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

14%

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

71%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

35%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

13%

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals

76%

Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals

41%

Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

44%

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.45 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

33%

level

26%

Polonia Warszawa scores more

41%

Polonia Warszawa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff