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Polonia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
4/19/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 28Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Polonia Warszawa42%
×Draw27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.38
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.17

Polonia Warszawa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 85 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.27
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.41
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
68%
Polonia Warszawa or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
73%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
58%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
19%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
75%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
40%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
16%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
69%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
33%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
57%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
42%
level
27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
32%

Polonia Warszawa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Polonia Warszawa and Zaglebie Sosnowiec drew 3-3 in I Liga on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.