Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3–0 Pogon Szczecin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pogon Szczecin

8/3/2018

Ekstraklasa · Round 3Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec34%

×Draw23%

Pogon Szczecin43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchPogon Szczecin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.79

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.56

Pogon Szczecin

1.79

Pogon Szczecin creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 138 away

1.89

creates per match

1.26

2.33

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.89

Pogon Szczecin

1.26

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.33

Pogon Szczecin

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Pogon Szczecin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

57%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Pogon Szczecin

77%

Draw or Pogon Szczecin

66%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

16%

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

79%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

46%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

21%

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

83%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

53%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

44%

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.23 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.26 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

34%

level

23%

Pogon Szczecin scores more

43%

Pogon Szczecin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff