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Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Ekstraklasa 2026

Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
12/8/2018EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 18Florian-Krygier-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pogon Szczecin59%
×Draw22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin
1.90
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.95

Pogon Szczecin creates 100% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.80
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.79

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.11
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.00

finishing

Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw
82%
Pogon Szczecin or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
78%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
41%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
35%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
85%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
56%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
29%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
61%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
76%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.11 · 134 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.80 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.79 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more
59%
level
22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
18%

Pogon Szczecin at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Florian-Krygier-Stadion in Szczecin.