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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Podhale Nowy Targ — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
ABD
09:30
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec37%
×Draw22%
Podhale Nowy Targ41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.75
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.69
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.60

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.08
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.80

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
59%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Podhale Nowy Targ
78%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
63%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
19%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
83%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
52%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
25%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
84%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
55%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
48%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.69 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.60 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
37%
level
22%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
41%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zaglebie Sosnowiec face Podhale Nowy Targ (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Zaglebie Sosnowiec hosting Podhale Nowy Targ. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.