Podhale Nowy Targ 1–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Podhale Nowy Targ

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

8/23/2025

II Liga - East · Round 5Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ52%

×Draw24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podhale Nowy TargExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.06

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.67

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.06

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

1.78

creates per match

1.06

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.78

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.06

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.06

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw

76%

Podhale Nowy Targ or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

76%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

48%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+

28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals

81%

Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals

50%

Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals

23%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

65%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

29%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)

68%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.78 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.67

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more

52%

level

24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

24%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff