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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Olimpia Grudziądz — II Liga - East 2019

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
7/21/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec37%
×Draw24%
Olimpia Grudziądz39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.38
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.26

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.82
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.58

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
61%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Olimpia Grudziądz
76%
Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz
63%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
17%
Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
77%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
43%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
19%
Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
79%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
45%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
48%
Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
37%
level
24%
Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
39%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–1 Olimpia Grudziądz

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Olimpia Grudziądz 2-1 in II Liga - East on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.