Olimpia Grudziądz 7–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

7 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

3/15/2026

II Liga - East · Round 23Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz44%

×Draw26%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.20

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.50

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.20

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 33 away

1.45

creates per match

1.06

1.34

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.45

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.06

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.34

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

70%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

74%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

56%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

22%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

78%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

44%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

19%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

70%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

34%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

59%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

44%

level

26%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

30%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff