Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0–1 Olimpia Grudziądz

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olimpia Grudziądz

Tiago Alves 75'

8/3/2019

I Liga · Round 2Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec40%

×Draw26%

Olimpia Grudziądz34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Grudziądz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.42

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.29

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 16 away

1.16

creates per match

1.19

1.39

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.19

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

66%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Olimpia Grudziądz

74%

Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz

60%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

19%

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

76%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

41%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

17%

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

72%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

37%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

54%

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.19 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

40%

level

26%

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

34%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

S. Bilenkyi

45'

Tiago Alves

62'

B. Radwanek← P. Małecki

68'

João Criciuma← K. Handzlik

71'

M. Szwed← S. Bilenkyi

74'

K. Radkowski

74'

M. Góral← F. Piasecki

75'

F. Piasecki

75'

Tiago Alves

77'

J. Criciuma

79'

B. Nowicki← J. Łukowski

85'

R. Szywacz← Tiago Alves

Zaglebie

Olimpia

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Mroczkowski

62'▲B. Radwanek←▼P. Małecki

71'▲M. Szwed←▼S. Bilenkyi

74'▲M. Góral←▼F. Piasecki

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

RadwanekSzwedGóral

Manager: M. Pawlak

68'▲João Criciuma←▼K. Handzlik

79'▲B. Nowicki←▼J. Łukowski

85'▲R. Szywacz←▼Tiago Alves

Olimpia Grudziądz substitutes

CriciumaNowickiSzywacz