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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Olimpia Elbląg — II Liga - East 2019

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
4/5/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 25ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec38%
×Draw25%
Olimpia Elbląg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.41
Olimpia Elbląg
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.38
Olimpia Elbląg
0.94

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.82
Olimpia Elbląg
1.44

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
63%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Olimpia Elbląg
75%
Draw or Olimpia Elbląg
62%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
18%
Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
76%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
41%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
17%
Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
75%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
40%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
51%
Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Olimpia Elbląg attack 0.94 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
38%
level
25%
Olimpia Elbląg scores more
37%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–1 Olimpia Elbląg

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Olimpia Elbląg 2-1 in II Liga - East on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.