Olimpia Elbląg 4–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Olimpia Elbląg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

9/7/2024

II Liga - East · Round 8Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg43%

×Draw27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia ElblągExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.13

Olimpia Elbląg

1.38

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.13

Olimpia Elbląg creates 22% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 33 away

1.20

creates per match

1.06

1.20

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg

1.20

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.06

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg

1.20

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw

69%

Olimpia Elbląg or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

73%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

57%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+

20%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals

75%

Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals

40%

Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals

16%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

68%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

31%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)

58%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 103 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.20 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more

43%

level

27%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

31%

Olimpia Elbląg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olimpia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff