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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
9/24/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 9ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec31%
×Draw26%
Nieciecza43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.19
Nieciecza
1.44

Nieciecza creates 21% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 103 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Nieciecza
1.50

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Nieciecza
1.22

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
57%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Nieciecza
74%
Draw or Nieciecza
69%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
13%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
70%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
33%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
12%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
76%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
42%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
42%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Nieciecza defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
31%
level
26%
Nieciecza scores more
43%

Nieciecza at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–3 Nieciecza

Nieciecza beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-1 in I Liga on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.