Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
4/6/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 26Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Nieciecza51%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.60
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.01

Nieciecza creates 58% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 85 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
1.72
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Nieciecza
1.08
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
76%
Nieciecza or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
49%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
80%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
47%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
64%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
68%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.60

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Nieciecza defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nieciecza scores more
51%
level
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
24%

Nieciecza at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Nieciecza 1–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Nieciecza and Zaglebie Sosnowiec drew 1-1 in I Liga on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica in Nieciecza.