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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Motor Lublin — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
12/8/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 18ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec29%
×Draw27%
Motor Lublin43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.05
Motor Lublin
1.33

Motor Lublin creates 27% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 18 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Motor Lublin
1.28

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Motor Lublin
0.94

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Motor Lublin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
57%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Motor Lublin
73%
Draw or Motor Lublin
71%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
11%
Motor Lublin wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
65%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
9%
Motor Lublin 1+ goals
74%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
38%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
41%
Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Motor Lublin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Motor Lublin attack 1.28 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
29%
level
27%
Motor Lublin scores more
43%

Motor Lublin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0–4 Motor Lublin

Motor Lublin beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 4-0 in I Liga on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.