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Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
7/21/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 1Arena Lublin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Motor Lublin45%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motor Lublin
1.56
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.23

Motor Lublin creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

Motor Lublin
1.65
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Motor Lublin
1.53
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Motor Lublin+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw
70%
Motor Lublin or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
55%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+
23%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals
79%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
46%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
21%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
71%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
35%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
60%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 1.65 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Motor Lublin defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Motor Lublin scores more
45%
level
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
30%

Motor Lublin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Motor Lublin 3–2 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Motor Lublin beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-2 in I Liga on July 21, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Lublin in Lublin.