Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–2 Miedz Legnica

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Miedz Legnica

5/18/2024

I Liga · Round 33ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec33%

×Draw27%

Miedz Legnica40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.31

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.17

Miedz Legnica

1.31

Miedz Legnica creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 105 away

1.16

creates per match

1.23

1.39

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Miedz Legnica

1.23

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Miedz Legnica

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

60%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Miedz Legnica

73%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

67%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

14%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

69%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

33%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

11%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

73%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

38%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

45%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Miedz Legnica attack 1.23 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

33%

level

27%

Miedz Legnica scores more

40%

Miedz Legnica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff