Miedz Legnica 2–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Miedz Legnica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

11/26/2023

I Liga · Round 16Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Miedz Legnica52%

×Draw24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.04

Miedz Legnica

1.66

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.04

Miedz Legnica creates 60% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 85 away

1.83

creates per match

0.94

1.15

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.83

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.94

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.15

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

76%

Miedz Legnica or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

76%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

48%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

81%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

49%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

23%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

65%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

69%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 102 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.83 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.66

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

52%

level

24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

24%

Miedz Legnica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff