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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Legia Warszawa — Ekstraklasa 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
12/20/2018EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 20Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec33%
×Draw23%
Legia Warszawa44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.55
Legia Warszawa
1.80

Legia Warszawa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 136 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.89
Legia Warszawa
1.27

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.33
Legia Warszawa
1.21

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Legia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
56%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Legia Warszawa
77%
Draw or Legia Warszawa
67%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
16%
Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
79%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
46%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
20%
Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
83%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
54%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
43%
Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.55

Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
33%
level
23%
Legia Warszawa scores more
44%

Legia Warszawa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Legia Warszawa

Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-2 in Ekstraklasa on December 20, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.