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Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Ekstraklasa 2026

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Carlitos López 77'
A. Jędrzejczyk 39'
K. Wrzesiński 54'
8/19/2018EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 5Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Legia Warszawa61%
×Draw22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa
1.93
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.90

Legia Warszawa creates 114% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 19 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa
1.86
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.79

allows per match

Legia Warszawa
1.01
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.00

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw
83%
Legia Warszawa or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
78%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
39%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
37%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
85%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
57%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
30%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
59%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
23%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
78%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.01 · 138 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.86 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.79 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more
61%
level
22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
17%

Legia Warszawa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Mateusz Wieteska
39'
A. Jędrzejczyk
46'
Alexander Christovao← T. Nowak
46'
S. Pawłowski← Giacomo Mello
54'
K. Wrzesiński↳ S. Pawłowski
62'
D. Nagy← M. Kucharczyk
62'
K. Hämäläinen← J. Kanté
74'
Junior Torunarigha
76'
Eduardo da Silva← A. Jędrzejczyk
77'
Carlitos López
78'
M. Cichocki← J. Torunarigha
80'
Sebastian Milewski
88'
Domagoj Antolić

Possession

55%Legia

Shots

8Legia

Statistics

LegiaZaglebie
Overview
55%Possession45%
8Total Shots3
2Corners4
13Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots3
4On Target2
4Off Target1
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on August 19, 2018.

Goals: A. Jędrzejczyk (39'), K. Wrzesiński (54'), Carlitos López (77').

Legia Warszawa controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie in Warsaw.