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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Lechia Gdansk — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
9/3/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 7ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec36%
×Draw26%
Lechia Gdansk38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.34
Lechia Gdansk
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Lechia Gdansk
1.35

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Lechia Gdansk
1.53

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
62%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Lechia Gdansk
74%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
64%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
16%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
74%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
39%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
15%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
75%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
40%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
49%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.35 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
36%
level
26%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
38%

Lechia Gdansk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 5–2 Lechia Gdansk

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Lechia Gdansk 5-2 in I Liga on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.