Lechia Gdansk 4–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Lechia Gdansk

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

10/6/2018

Ekstraklasa · Round 11Stadion Energa Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lechia Gdansk55%

×Draw24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.97

Lechia Gdansk

1.74

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.97

Lechia Gdansk creates 79% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 19 away

1.48

creates per match

0.79

1.16

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.48

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.79

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.16

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

79%

Lechia Gdansk or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

76%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

45%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

31%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

82%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

52%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

62%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

73%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 120 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.74

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.79 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

55%

level

24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

21%

Lechia Gdansk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff