Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Lech Poznan — Ekstraklasa 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
F. Marchwiński 86'
João Amaral 79', 58'
T. Klups 50'
C. Gytkjær 41'
R. Gumny 22'
12/16/2018EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 19Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec32%
×Draw23%
Lech Poznan45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.53
Lech Poznan
1.85

Lech Poznan creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 137 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.89
Lech Poznan
1.36

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.33
Lech Poznan
1.17

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Lech Poznan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
55%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Lech Poznan
77%
Draw or Lech Poznan
68%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
15%
Lech Poznan wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
78%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
45%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
20%
Lech Poznan 1+ goals
84%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
55%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
42%
Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.17 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Lech Poznan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lech Poznan attack 1.36 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
32%
level
23%
Lech Poznan scores more
45%

Lech Poznan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. Putnocký← J. Burić
22'
R. Gumny↳ V. Kostevych
37'
Piotr Polczak
41'
C. Gytkjær↳ R. Gumny
50'
T. Klups↳ C. Gytkjær
58'
João Amaral↳ T. Klups
61'
A. Banasiak← D. Vokič
64'
C. Rzonca← S. Milewski
70'
Konrad Wrzesiński
71'
F. Marchwiński← T. Klups
76'
K. Kumor← M. Heinloth
79'
João Amaral↳ M. Makuszewski
82'
Robert Gumny
83'
M. Wasielewski← João Amaral
86'
F. Marchwiński↳ M. Makuszewski

Possession

61%Zaglebie

Shots

10Zaglebie

Statistics

ZaglebieLech
Overview
61%Possession39%
10Total Shots9
3Corners6
12Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots9
2On Target8
8Off Target1
Passing
61%Possession39%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 6-0 in Ekstraklasa on December 16, 2018.

Goals: R. Gumny (22'), C. Gytkjær (41'), T. Klups (50'), João Amaral (58', 79'), F. Marchwiński (86').

Zaglebie Sosnowiec controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.