Lech Poznan 4–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec: Result & Stats

Lech Poznan

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

M. Gajos 70'

P.Tomczyk 41', 20'

João Amaral 7'

8/12/2018

Ekstraklasa · Round 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lech Poznan62%

×Draw21%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech PoznanExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.88

Lech Poznan

1.96

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.88

Lech Poznan creates 123% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 19 away

1.93

creates per match

0.79

0.96

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Lech Poznan

1.93

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.79

allows per match

Lech Poznan

0.96

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw

84%

Lech Poznan or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

79%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

38%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

38%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

86%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

58%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

31%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

59%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

22%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

79%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.96 · 136 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 1.93 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.79 + Lech Poznan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lech Poznan scores more

62%

level

21%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

16%

Lech Poznan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Vamara Sanogo

7'

João Amaral↳ P.Tomczyk

20'

P.Tomczyk↳ M. Makuszewski

41'

58'

64'

65'

67'

Giacomo Mello← Ž. Udovičić

68'

70'

73'

81'

83'

D. Jevtić← K. Jóźwiak

83'

J. Torunarigha← B. Babiarz

85'

A. Banasiak← K. Wrzesiński

Shots

Statistics

LechZaglebie

Overview

10Total Shots12

4Corners3

8Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots12

6On Target4

4Off Target8

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3