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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
11/5/2018EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 14Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec37%
×Draw22%
Jagiellonia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.71
Jagiellonia
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 138 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.89
Jagiellonia
1.26

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.33
Jagiellonia
1.52

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Jagiellonia+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Jagiellonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
60%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Jagiellonia
78%
Draw or Jagiellonia
63%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
19%
Jagiellonia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
82%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
51%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
24%
Jagiellonia 1+ goals
83%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
53%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
48%
Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Jagiellonia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jagiellonia attack 1.26 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
37%
level
22%
Jagiellonia scores more
40%

Jagiellonia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 4-1 in Ekstraklasa on November 5, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.