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Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Ekstraklasa 2026

Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
P. Klimala 34'
Jesús Imaz 19' (pen)
V. Sanogo 82' (pen)
4/6/2019EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 29Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jagiellonia58%
×Draw22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia
1.90
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.02

Jagiellonia creates 86% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 19 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia
1.80
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.79

allows per match

Jagiellonia
1.24
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.00

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw
80%
Jagiellonia or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
78%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
42%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+
34%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals
85%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
56%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
29%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
64%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
74%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.24 · 135 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.80 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.79 + Jagiellonia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jagiellonia scores more
58%
level
22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
20%

Jagiellonia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Jesús ImazPenalty
22'
Szymon Pawłowski
34'
P. Klimala↳ A. Novikovas
42'
O. Nowak← G. Gabedava
45'
Nemanja Mitrović
46'
T. Nowak← T. Nawotka
51'
Martin Tóth
52'
Guilherme Haubert Sityá
52'
Georgios Mygas
66'
Olaf Nowak
71'
J. Wójcicki← P. Klimala
78'
Taras Romanczuk
82'
Marián Kelemen
82'
V. SanogoPenalty
83'
B. Böðvarsson← M. Košťál
90'
Lukáš Hroššo
90'
M. Poletanović← Jesús Imaz

Possession

46%Jagiellonia

Shots

7Jagiellonia

Statistics

JagielloniaZaglebie
Overview
46%Possession54%
7Total Shots7
5Corners6
15Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots7
4On Target3
3Off Target4
Passing
46%Possession54%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls14
4Yellow Cards5
2Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: Jagiellonia 2–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Jagiellonia beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on April 6, 2019.

Goals: Jesús Imaz (19' pen), P. Klimala (34'), V. Sanogo (82' pen).

Zaglebie Sosnowiec controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku in Bialystok.