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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Hutnik Kraków — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
CANC
17:00
Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
2/17/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec42%
×Draw21%
Hutnik Kraków36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.99
Hutnik Kraków
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.69
Hutnik Kraków
1.60

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.08
Hutnik Kraków
2.30

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Hutnik Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
64%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Hutnik Kraków
79%
Draw or Hutnik Kraków
58%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
23%
Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
86%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
59%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
32%
Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
84%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
55%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
54%
Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.69 + Hutnik Kraków defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.99

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.60 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
42%
level
21%
Hutnik Kraków scores more
36%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zaglebie Sosnowiec host Hutnik Kraków

February 17, 2024: Zaglebie Sosnowiec take on Hutnik Kraków in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec host Hutnik Kraków at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.