Hutnik Kraków 1–4 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Hutnik Kraków

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

3/30/2025

II Liga - East · Round 24Stadion Suche Stawy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hutnik Kraków46%

×Draw25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hutnik KrakówExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.19

Hutnik Kraków

1.55

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.19

Hutnik Kraków creates 30% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 33 away

1.55

creates per match

1.06

1.32

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków

1.55

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.06

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków

1.32

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw

71%

Hutnik Kraków or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

75%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

54%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

23%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

79%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

46%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

20%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

70%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

33%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

61%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 103 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.55 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.55

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more

46%

level

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

29%

Hutnik Kraków at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff