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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Górnik Polkowice — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
12/3/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 20Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec47%
×Draw25%
Górnik Polkowice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.61
Górnik Polkowice
1.19

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 35% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Górnik Polkowice
1.00

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Górnik Polkowice
2.06

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
72%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Górnik Polkowice
75%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
53%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
24%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
80%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
48%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
22%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
70%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
33%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
63%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Górnik Polkowice defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.61

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.00 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
47%
level
25%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Górnik Polkowice

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Górnik Polkowice 5-0 in I Liga on December 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.