Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Górnik Polkowice vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
8/15/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 3Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice39%
×Draw29%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.18
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.03

Górnik Polkowice creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
0.88
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.12
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
68%
Górnik Polkowice or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
71%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
61%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
17%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
69%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
33%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
12%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
64%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
55%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.18

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
39%
level
29%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
32%

Górnik Polkowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Górnik Polkowice 4-2 in I Liga on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.