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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
12/19/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 17ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec40%
×Draw27%
Chrobry Głogów33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.36
Chrobry Głogów
1.21

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 138 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Chrobry Głogów
1.04

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Chrobry Głogów
1.57

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
67%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Chrobry Głogów
73%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
60%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
19%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
74%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
39%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
16%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
70%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
34%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
55%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.04 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
40%
level
27%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
33%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Chrobry Głogów

Chrobry Głogów beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-1 in I Liga on December 19, 2023.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.