Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chrobry Głogów vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
5/22/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 34Stadion GOS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Chrobry Głogów45%
×Draw27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów
1.36
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.00

Chrobry Głogów creates 36% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 85 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.25
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.06
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw
72%
Chrobry Głogów or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
73%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
55%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
21%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
74%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
39%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
16%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
63%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
26%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
62%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.25 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more
45%
level
27%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
28%

Chrobry Głogów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Chrobry Głogów beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 4-0 in I Liga on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion GOS in Głogów.