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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — II Liga - East 2019

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
5/31/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 33ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec30%
×Draw24%
Chojniczanka Chojnice45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.30
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.64

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 87 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.38
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.45

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.82
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.23

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
55%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Chojniczanka Chojnice
76%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
70%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
13%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
73%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
37%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
14%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
81%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
49%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
40%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
30%
level
24%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
45%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Chojniczanka Chojnice

Zaglebie Sosnowiec and Chojniczanka Chojnice drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.